Japanese government predicts a huge earthquake called “Huge Nankai quake” may be coming in next 30 years. Its probability is 60-70%. The government estimates 440,000 people might die in the worst case, if Huge Nankai quake hits Japan. (Approximately 19,000 people died in the 2011 earthquake.)
110,000 people might die in the most hazardous Shizuoka prefecture. It is estimated 1500 people in Tokyo might die by the tsunami.
Figure: Predicted Number of Deaths in Next Super Quake (worst case)
Table: Predicted Number of Deaths in Next Super Quake (worst case)
| Prefecture | by House/building collapse | by Tsunami | by Landslide | by Fire | by Other reason | Total |
| Ibaraki | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Tochigi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Gunma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Saitama | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chiba | 1 | 1,600 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1,600 |
| Tokyo | 1 | 1,500 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1,500 |
| Kanagawa | 1 | 2,900 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2,900 |
| Niigata | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Toyama | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ishikawa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Fukui | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Yamanashi | 400 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 400 |
| Nagano | 50 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 50 |
| Gifu | 200 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 200 |
| Shizuoka | 13,000 | 95,000 | 40 | 1,600 | 1 | 109,000 |
| Aichi | 15,000 | 6,400 | 50 | 1,800 | 1 | 23,000 |
| Mie | 9,800 | 32,000 | 60 | 900 | 1 | 43,000 |
| Shiga | 500 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 500 |
| Kyoto | 600 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 80 | 900 |
| Osaka | 3,000 | 2,400 | 10 | 2,100 | 300 | 7,700 |
| Hyogo | 1,400 | 4,100 | 10 | 200 | 60 | 5,800 |
| Nara | 1,600 | 1 | 30 | 50 | 1 | 1,700 |
| Wakayama | 6,000 | 72,000 | 40 | 1,200 | 1 | 80,000 |
| Tottori | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Shimane | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Okayama | 1,100 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1,200 |
| Hiroshima | 700 | 60 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 800 |
| Yamaguchi | 80 | 100 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 200 |
| Tokushima | 5,200 | 25,000 | 40 | 500 | 1 | 31,000 |
| Kagawa | 2,300 | 1,100 | 20 | 70 | 1 | 3,500 |
| Ehime | 7,400 | 4,400 | 50 | 700 | 1 | 12,000 |
| Kochi | 10,000 | 37,000 | 80 | 1,600 | 1 | 49,000 |
| Fukuoka | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Saga | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nagasaki | 1 | 80 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 80 |
| Kumamoto | 1 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Oita | 100 | 17,000 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 17,000 |
| Miyazaki | 2,400 | 39,000 | 20 | 100 | 1 | 42,000 |
| Kagoshima | 10 | 1,200 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1,200 |
| Okinawa | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
Source is Cabinet Office, Government Of Japan.
www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/nankaitrough_info.html
www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/nankai/taisaku_wg/pdf/20120905_06.pdf
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