Predicted Number of Deaths in Next Super Quake in Japan

Japanese government predicts a huge earthquake called “Huge Nankai quake” may be coming in next 30 years. Its probability is 60-70%. The government estimates 440,000 people might die in the worst case, if Huge Nankai quake hits Japan. (Approximately 19,000 people died in the 2011 earthquake.)

110,000 people might die in the most hazardous Shizuoka prefecture. It is estimated 1500 people in Tokyo might die by the tsunami.

Figure: Predicted Number of Deaths in Next Super Quake (worst case)

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Table: Predicted Number of Deaths in Next Super Quake (worst case)

Prefecture	by House/building collapse	by Tsunami	by Landslide	by Fire	by Other reason	Total
Ibaraki	1	20	1	1	1	20
Tochigi	1	1	1	1	1	1
Gunma	1	1	1	1	1	1
Saitama	1	1	1	1	1	1
Chiba	1	1,600	1	1	1	1,600
Tokyo	1	1,500	1	1	1	1,500
Kanagawa	1	2,900	1	1	1	2,900
Niigata	1	1	1	1	1	1
Toyama	1	1	1	1	1	1
Ishikawa	1	1	1	1	1	1
Fukui	1	1	1	1	1	1
Yamanashi	400	1	10	1	1	400
Nagano	50	1	10	1	1	50
Gifu	200	1	20	1	1	200
Shizuoka	13,000	95,000	40	1,600	1	109,000
Aichi	15,000	6,400	50	1,800	1	23,000
Mie	9,800	32,000	60	900	1	43,000
Shiga	500	1	1	1	1	500
Kyoto	600	1	1	200	80	900
Osaka	3,000	2,400	10	2,100	300	7,700
Hyogo	1,400	4,100	10	200	60	5,800
Nara	1,600	1	30	50	1	1,700
Wakayama	6,000	72,000	40	1,200	1	80,000
Tottori	1	1	1	1	1	1
Shimane	1	1	1	1	1	1
Okayama	1,100	40	10	10	1	1,200
Hiroshima	700	60	20	1	1	800
Yamaguchi	80	100	10	1	1	200
Tokushima	5,200	25,000	40	500	1	31,000
Kagawa	2,300	1,100	20	70	1	3,500
Ehime	7,400	4,400	50	700	1	12,000
Kochi	10,000	37,000	80	1,600	1	49,000
Fukuoka	1	10	1	1	1	10
Saga	1	1	1	1	1	1
Nagasaki	1	80	1	1	1	80
Kumamoto	1	10	10	1	1	20
Oita	100	17,000	30	1	1	17,000
Miyazaki	2,400	39,000	20	100	1	42,000
Kagoshima	10	1,200	1	1	1	1,200
Okinawa	1	10	1	1	1	10